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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.