A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
