Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
