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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd